My sister has been telling me for months that the stock market is in for a correction. Why should I listen to her? She works for a company that handles a large portion of U.S. company 401K portfolios and is in the financial trenches daily. She’s also called 3 of the last 3 corrections in the market. Sure, no one has a crystal ball, but I’ve started to really pay attention to what she says. I’m paraphrasing what she recently posted on my facebook page in response to my comment about moving my money:
There’s talk of a correction (which is typically a 10% drop from the high) – even that misfit Jim Cramer thinks so. All the signs are there. The market grew by 65 – 75% in 2009. How in the heck could that happen? t’s another false economy that’s being driven by false pretenses.
Unemployment
Approximately 1/3 of the country isn’t working:
- 10% unemployment plus
- 15% or so under-employment (the number is unclear but high) plus
- who just gave up looking
Consumer Spending
Despite the uptick in consumer confidence in January, a large chunk of the population just isn’t spending. Unemployment and uncertainty about the housing market and whether or not the recession is over is keeping wallets shut.The financial state of PIIGS is terrifying.
What is PIIGS? Wall Street Journal reported that some bearish international investors have coined a new term for the countries that they believe are the weak links of the euro zone: PIIGS — which stands for Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain. Last Friday, the financial industry widely covered the possible default of Portugal.Commercial Real Estate
Keep an eye on the commercial real estate bubble. The standard contract is 3 – 5 years for ALL commercial real estate. After that time, the lender re-evaluates the business to see if they’re still a viable client. If so, they’ll extend the contract. If not…no dice. You haven’t heard much about it until now b/c the contracts that were signed when real estate was flying high are coming due starting this year. A good source who works in the business indicated that half of the commercial real estate is underwater. Those are bad numbers. Stay tuned.
I have the courage of my convictions (and my sister’s). I moved all of my investment portfolio into money markets and bonds on Friday Feb 5, 2010; my sister moved all of her money before Christmas. My portfolios have recovered significantly from last year’s 40% drop and I thought it was a good time. I’d rather have all of my money for the near future and take a chance on missing any stock market rally which might happen.
How about you? What’s your prediction for the stock market? Have you moved your funds recently? Tell us about it by leaving a comment!



