It comes as no surprise that a government agency goofed, but it’s disappointing nonetheless, especially when it’s revealed that the economy’s biggest recession since the Great Depression was even worse than we thought. The Department of Commerce previously underestimated the depth of what has come to be known as the Great Recession.
As revealed in its latest GDP report released today, the Department made these notable revisions:
- From 2007 through 2009, economic output declined 5.1 percent (not 4.1)
- At the depth of the recession in the 4th quarter of 2008, the economy declined 8.9 percent (not 6.8)
- When the economy started growing again in the 4th quarter of 2009, growth was 3.8 percent (not 5.0)
- And when the economy started slowing…again…in the 4th quarter of 2010, the economy only grew 2.3 percent (not 3.1)
Of course, things haven’t gotten much better in 2011. For months economists have blamed it on high gas prices and the impact of the Japan earthquake on manufacturing. But the numbers released today show the economy slowing before that, in the 4th quarter of 2010.
Fast-forwarding to the present, the most recent numbers show the economy still growing, but at a snail’s pace. The economy grew .4 percent in the first quarter of 2011 and 1.3 percent in the 2nd quarter. However, note this telling disclaimer in the official Department press release:
The second-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency…. The “second” estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 26, 2011.
Considering the importance of GDP growth, why release numbers before they’ve been confirmed? If more complete data will be available by August 26 – less than a month away – doesn’t it seem preferable to wait? Then again, the Department is still revising numbers dating back to 2003. With a track record like that, how can we put any stock in GDP numbers at all?
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