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Morgan Stanley looking for bailout


jq26
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I think we're all the same boat. I made a move that cost me $250 and counting, (that's just today! Not counting the loss I locked in) moving out of a financial ETF and into DGP. Nothing made on the DGP and $225 I could have recovered on the UYG. I'm just sick of it...

That's just a small sub-section of my portfolio, some cash I had available. Everything else, I consider "locked up" (by my own rule) and that goes in and out with the tide. Today has been a nauseating ride. It would have been better to stay away from the computer all day and just check in at closing time. Of course, I say that now, and I have no idea what will happen in 45 minutes.

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The CSI300 was up 9% last time I checked. That's the Chinese market. ALL the bids on my Chinese related stocks are well above the closing price in pre-trading.

We're about to see the mother of all short squeezes. It may be government orchestrated to some extent but many markets are underpriced and ready to run!

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  • 4 months later...

"Rogers, co-founder along George Soros of the Quantum Fund, railed at the Federal Reserve and incoming U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, while also saying the high saving rate and solid fundamentals in China make it a powerful force to be reckoned with.

"This is going to be the new center of the world, not just the financial but the political world," he said at the Asian Financial Forum in Hong Kong.

Rogers, who is now an independent investor living in Singapore, said he was going to use the U.S. dollar rally in the last six months to get out of all his investments in dollar-denominated assets and keep buying Chinese equities, the Japanese yen and commodities."

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20090119&id=9524019

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The idea that you can fix a period of excess borrowing and excess consumption by more borrowing and more consumption to me is just ludicrous

I'm a big fan of Jim Rogers. I love the way he talks openly about the Fed and sometimes is even insulting to the people who are interviewing him. He is the defintion of brash. Despite the fact he's lived in the Orient for years, you can still tell he's an Alabamian at heart when he dresses someone down with his words..

I've read his two more famous books about traversing the world via motorcycle and later mercedes SUV... Investment Biker in 1994 and Adventure Capitalist in 2003

I've made a lot of money over the years taking Rogers' advice. Personally, I wonder if Chinese equities are a bubble, and I'm not ready to rid myself of the dollar... yet. But, with the national savings rate above 50% in China and with nothing going to waste, they are starting to develop personal wealth, and as such, they'll need consumer goods, healthcare, infrastructure in the middle part of the country and all the real growth that comes with it.

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I agree 100%, both with you and Rogers.

fyi- Chinese equities are down almost 75% in an environment of growth. In addition, they have massive government and personal savings. May still have more to fall- who knows. But it seems a better bet than US right now.

Rogers moved to Asia so his kids would learn the native tongue. He compares living in Shanghei with what it would have been like living in NY in 1900. The financial and cultural capital of the world.

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  • 4 weeks later...

Good article. That's not surprising.

How much longer until Chinese companies start buying big American corporations and not just talking about it?

Just a few months ago Dongfeng and SAIC were ready to buy GM and Chrysler. I didn't follow that too closely, but Chrysler has apparently since decided it would be better to sell an equity stake to Renault...

How much longer until Chinese retailers decide it is a better bet to buy foreign retailers at a bargain instead of focusing on local investment? Probably a while considering the amount of work they have to do to fight off American companies who are stealing marketshare in China everyday; however, I wouldn't be surprised if Sears, Saks, Gap, Pier One Imports, et al., all ended up in foreign hands within the next few years, and maybe sooner..

The ten largest banks by market cap, according to Bloomberg back in February, 2008:

http://skorcareer.com.my/blog/10-worlds-largest-banks-list-in-2008/2008/06/18/

Three of China's "big 4" were in the top 5. (Of course, that's market cap and not total assets, and it's also a year old. Still telling, nonetheless...)

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The Chinese government has stockpiles of US Treasuries. Chinese families save 30-50% of their income. We certainly have a lot to learn about saving for a rainy day.

I've been buying shares of Chinese companies in the past year. Many have PEs of 3-5, no debt, loads of yuan on the books, and growth rates of 10-50%. These companies are cash cows. :D

China surpassed the US last month as the largest purchaser of motor vehicles. The signs of a slow global redistribution of wealth are accumulating. We are starting to look like England in the early 20th century. I hope I am wrong.

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