Chester P. Dexter Posted October 9, 2008 Report Share Posted October 9, 2008 Any predictions of how low it will go and when this will find a definite, stinky bottom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chester P. Dexter Posted October 9, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 9, 2008 I am not really a worrier, but I have to tell you, that in addition to the cold sweats that have been waking me up in the middle of the night, this 500 dow drop right now is making me feel queasy. Please, someone tell me that it's going to be OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swirlgirl Posted October 9, 2008 Report Share Posted October 9, 2008 Can you define "OK?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorch Posted October 9, 2008 Report Share Posted October 9, 2008 Can you define "OK?"OK–adjective1. all right; proceeding normally; satisfactory or under control: Things are OK at the moment.2. correct, permissible, or acceptable; meeting standards: Is this suit OK to wear to a formal party?3. doing well or in good health; managing adequately: She's been OK since the operation.4. adequate but unexceptional or unremarkable; tolerable: The job they did was OK, nothing more.5. estimable, dependable, or trustworthy; likable: an OK person. http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chester P. Dexter Posted October 9, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 9, 2008 You'll have to pardon me. It was -600something when I posted. What a cool, refreshing breeze it is to now see just a little -495 or so dip in the Dow. What's a 500 point down day, anyway? What else is new in this market, anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jq26 Posted October 9, 2008 Report Share Posted October 9, 2008 I am not really a worrier, but I have to tell you, that in addition to the cold sweats that have been waking me up in the middle of the night, this 500 dow drop right now is making me feel queasy. Please, someone tell me that it's going to be OK.When enough people start feeling the way you do and totally throw in the towel in fear, then it'll be over. There'll be a massive dumping of shares in a major capitulation event and stronger hands will take control. Bottoms almost always are made this way- Fleckenstein even had a good little article on this today. On another note, I increased my 401k to 24% of my salary. They give me a 9% match- which means that 33% of my salary is on autopilot. I'm also thinking about throwing another $5k into a Roth. Its a friggin firesale. I'm holding shares of companies that are sitting on tons of cash and are now trading at forward PEs below 4. I only share this with you to calm your nerves. This is a fear based global sell-off. IT WILL PASS. In 5 years, when you pull up a 10yr DJIA or NASDAQ chart, you will see this gigantic crater from 5 years prior and say "WOW, what a buying opportunity. I wish I would have bought more!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chester P. Dexter Posted October 9, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 9, 2008 I just bought in between those posts, btw. Not much, but MOS at 36.69 should turn out well in the future, I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jq26 Posted October 9, 2008 Report Share Posted October 9, 2008 LOL! I tried buying MOS the other day in my Scottrade account and they blocked me. I have to phone the order in. Something about being on a "protection" list.I think if you hold it for a year, you've got a triple bagger. One more thing- look at the VIX. I've never seen anything like it!!!! Either this is a once in a lifetime event occurring OR its based on massive fear. I'm going with the former. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jq26 Posted October 9, 2008 Report Share Posted October 9, 2008 Part of the fall in the Dow is the commodity crash. Anything even remotely affiliated with oil, gas, copper, aluminum, etc is being thrown in the garbage. Wholesale gasoline is now selling for $1.97/gallon on the NYMEX. Add a bit of margin for distribution and retailers at the pump, and you've still got pump prices below $2.50. Coming soon. http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/cfutures.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jq26 Posted October 9, 2008 Report Share Posted October 9, 2008 One more bit of good cheer: http://biz.yahoo.com/indie/081009/1474_id.html?.v=1"...In this challenging market, some of the world's most highly regarded value investors are seeing opportunity. Among them is the legendary Marty Whitman, who last month told Toronto's Globe and Mail, "We can't try to pick the bottom, but it seems to me that there are great values out there now, just like in 1974." He added, "Everything went down every day, and if you bought, you hit a lot of 10-baggers."..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chester P. Dexter Posted October 9, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 9, 2008 Where do you think the opportunities are going to be? Commodities-related stuff? Or something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jq26 Posted October 9, 2008 Report Share Posted October 9, 2008 Where do you think the opportunities are going to be? Commodities-related stuff? Or something else???? That's the million dollar question. I only pick individual stocks and sectors in my "fun" trading account, but if I had to guess -> gold, gold producers, the banks that are left standing (whomever that will be), some farming commodity stocks (this is why I was looking at MOS), and biotech companies that are not debt-ridden and have actual profits. Almost all of my fun money is in China. They are cash rich as a country ($2 trillion in reserves!!!), personally save 30% of their income, and are growing by leaps and bounds. 401k is 50% small cap growth, 50% foreign growth. I keep buying and I sleep well at night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magdalen77 Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 ?401k is 50% small cap growth, 50% foreign growth. I keep buying and I sleep well at night...I know, sigh, I've been wishing I had a little more $$$ to buy up some shares in some of these companies.I still have my automatic purchases for my stocks and mutual funds and I have some money going into an IRA. But it would be sweet to have a few extra thousand to invest in some other stuff.I have a regular old pension (defined benefits) with the Commonwealth and apparently that's still doing okay. Heck, I still have 10-11 years 'til retirement, so I have time for these things to recover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jq26 Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Any predictions of how low it will go and when this will find a definite, stinky bottom?Appears the irrational behavior has become so ridiculous that we are making a bottom. From what I can tell from reading articles and looking at charts, this is what a bottom looks and feels like! Complete panic...ending in a monster selloff...into a climax that defies logic (this morning's open), followed by an outside reversal on strong volume. I hate to use the "I have a friend" story, but consider this. I know someone who is tight with a money manager. This manager is responsible for $150,000,000 of client's money. He stated two weeks ago that he has 85% of that money in cash!!!!!!!! If other money managers are thinking in similar terms (they are like sheep), then imagine the squeeze that will occur when all that money gets pushed back into the markets! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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