jq26

Stock Markets

Recommended Posts

BIG, I think you're totally spot on to check the bond markets. Still could be some downside due to the flight to safety going on. The bond market is showing the fear- the yield on the 2yr even plummeted today, even in the face of a monstrous Q4 GDP report. That's strange- there is a lot of fear still out there driving up debt prices.

I think some of it, although irrational to me, is at least partly due to money market fund reform However, I'm thinking that the situation in Greece could have a greater impact...

Edited by Bigwoodystyl
clarity
Link to post
Share on other sites

Today was UGLY. I'm still in cash in my trading account....I'm looking to pick up some ATPG on the cheap. I hope the market gets cut in half again. Along with many others, I made a fortune over the past two years. If it wasn't for the last downturn and upswing, I could have never purchased the home we are in. It would have taken at least another year before we would have had the required down payment.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Recently i am interested in investment and the stock market. But i am also aware of the risk in it. With proper knowledge, i am able to reduce the risk. So how do i learn all this?

First, get a monkey and teach it to throw darts. Then, blindfold it, spread the financial pages of your local newspaper across the wall and have at it...

monkeythrowingdartsatstocks.jpg

Link to post
Share on other sites
Recently i am interested in investment and the stock market. But i am also aware of the risk in it. With proper knowledge, i am able to reduce the risk. So how do i learn all this?

I works just like a casino, the house wins most of the time.
Link to post
Share on other sites
I works just like a casino, the house wins most of the time.

I'm not sure that I understand. Who is the house?

Historically, stocks have been a good bet as they've significantly outpaced inflation and until recently, the market had never lost money as a whole over any ten year period. ["Past performance may not be indicative of future results..."] For a lot of people in the last few years, some retiring soon and some recently retired, the market turned out not to be a good bet. [To be fair, many of these people who were hurt and have no time left to make up their losses should have moved to a more conservative portfolio as they increased in age...]

In the case of stocks, you're buying equity of publicly traded companies. If the stocks don't go up in value, then nobody wins. In the case of bonds, you're buying debt. If the bonds don't hold their fixed income, then the company is in serious trouble. Again, I don't know who is "winning"--maybe your broker or financial advisor if you are buying loaded funds, etc., but at $7/trade with a deep discounted broker, that doesn't seem like a big win for the house.

In regards to buying securities, i.e., stocks/bonds, when the market goes up, everybody wins and when it goes down, everybody loses. We'll ignore those who are doing something exotic or using leveraged derivatives.. playing zero-sum games or those who are shorting.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Who is the house?

That would be your broker. Your broker makes money no matter what the market does.
but at $7/trade with a deep discounted broker, that doesn't seem like a big win for the house.

It becomes a big win because of the sheer volume. $7 a trade doesn't seem like much until you realize the number of trades made everyday.

I am only marginally in the market now, as I beleive it is in a bounce period. Every bear market has had a bounce at some point, I think we are in that period now. I will wait until stocks trade in the 5 to 8 times earnings range rather than the 20 times earnings that they currently are at. The last time the market was at 5 times earnings was in 1982, when the last bull market begin. That bull market ended in 2008.

Link to post
Share on other sites
OK, but what if you buy stock directly from the company under a DPP?

The vast majority of trades are through a broker. The company I retired from had a DPP and I still had to pay a brokerage fee when I sold my shares.
Link to post
Share on other sites

Fair enough, but I think that's a dyspeptic viewpoint. Brokerage fees from a full-service broker are marketed as "commissions for fair and unbiased advice", which, of course, they aren't and never were. These people are merely salesmen and you can classify them as "the house".

"Wall Street is a place where whatever can be sold will be sold. You are the consumer of their dreck. What they can sell to you, they will sell to you.”

--Warren Buffet

OTOH, what if my Internet broker lets me make 25 free trades/year? [which is just about as many as I make anyway]

Also, at a deep discounted Internet broker, the fees are simple and they're pay as you go. Plus, they offer free analytics, cheap statements, consolidated 1099 reporting, etc., and all of this costs them real money. Further, IMHO, these services alone are worth more than the price of trades. Their profit margins are thin and they do rely on volume and that's one of the reason they consolidate so often.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Over long periods of time, not being invested is risky. Inflation risk is present. I don't think equities are the end all be all though. Definitely gotta be diversified. Commodities, RE, metals, bonds, etc.

In any case, I got a little antsy on Friday morning and put some cash to work again. Picked up 700 shares of ATPG at an average cost of $12.91. I was prepared to buy above $14, so I'm happy to be in at what I consider a discount.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Over long periods of time, not being invested is risky. Inflation risk is present. I don't think equities are the end all be all though. Definitely gotta be diversified. Commodities, RE, metals, bonds, etc.

Looking at it in the long run, it probably makes sense to be invested.

Then again, "The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead"--Keynes

In any case, I got a little antsy on Friday morning and put some cash to work again. Picked up 700 shares of ATPG at an average cost of $12.91. I was prepared to buy above $14, so I'm happy to be in at what I consider a discount.

Probably smart. I still want to know what happens with Greece, Italy, Spaiin, Portugal... before I buy anything that's priced in USD.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I haven't looked at it. I take it the market is up. I'm trying something new. I'm going to set my buy/sellorders on limits that execute without my constant babysitting. It'll make me more efficient, reduce stress, and eliminate emotion.

So far, ignorance is bliss. I don't have to worry about daily stock fluctuations. I get to think about more pleasant things like: having a 20month old with an ear ache, not having my Partnership Taxation class reading done for tonight, the impending 20" of snow we are expecting AGAIN tonight, and filing an answer by Friday for a complaint filed against my father-in-law's LLC three weeks ago. :cool: I need a vacation....last one I had was in 2007.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'll ruin the surprise for you, then. As of right now, you are up $1,022.00, exclusive of commission, of course, if they weren't factored in originally.

Woot!

eh... sorry about the other stuff. Hopefully a spoonful of sugar will help the medicine go down. Or something like that.

I also have not had a vacation since 2007. Ocean City, MD. Comfort Inn on the Boardwalk. A little rough around the edges but pretty nice, considering the neighborhood, and swimming in their pool with my face at foot-level of people walking by on the boards was an experience to remember!

Link to post
Share on other sites
Ocean City, MD. Comfort Inn on the Boardwalk. A little rough around the edges but pretty nice
Not too shabby. We just put a deposit down on a house in Ocean City, NJ with three other families for a week in July. It'll be some vacation- 8 adults and 7 kids under 5 yrs old packed into a beach house. :shock: What were we thinking? Edited by jq26
Link to post
Share on other sites
...I got a little antsy on Friday morning and put some cash to work again. Picked up 700 shares of ATPG at an average cost of $12.91.
....And out at $16.32 at 1:25pm this Friday. A quick $2400 after txn costs. I wanted to let it run but I just don't have the stones. I think it runs through the $20s soon enough, but I don't want to be piggish.
Link to post
Share on other sites

I must have more stones than I should, because I picked up the shares you left behind.

Actually, I don't deal in as many shares as you do. But before I saw your post, I had picked up 165 at 3:14 PM for $16.27 each. Right now that's $125 profit, so maybe I can cover one night at the Comfort Inn again!

(I hope people know that jq and I are discussing vacation plans - with our families - next summer. LOL)

Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice pick up. I had a feeling ATPG would go much higher. I just felt it was time to clip a 25% gain. A bird in hand is worth two in the bush.

I allocated the $2400 towards a piece of furniture. We are tryng to furnish our house right now. We moved from a 1050 sq. foot home to a 3700 sq. foot home in October. All of our current furniture is tiny. It looks like "little people" live in my house!

I bought this TV stand this weekend with the ATPG gain: http://www.accent-furniture-direct.com/Stanley-Furniture-370-1731-370-1751-STA1470.html

Every bit of it is sourced and crafted in the United States. This is the fifth piece of furniture I've bought from Stanley since October. The SOB is back ordered until April, so it looks like at least one US manufacturing company is kickin' butt.

I hope ATPG stock price runs to 100 for you.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Make sure you anchor it to the wall with the pitter-patter of little feet that will be going on.
I bought this one specifically because the wood is sturdy enough to handle the swivel arm I have for our tv. My little guy is 20 months- nothing is safe. And with #2 on the way, anything not anchored will be destined for destruction.

Nice close today on ATPG....earnings from last Q will suck (delays), but if you get a positive response from the recent flow tests, ATPG could break 20 in a heartbeat.

Link to post
Share on other sites

FWIW, the company who makes my favorite product is going public and just filed their S 1... http://www.qlikview.com/us/company/press-room/press-releases/2010/0401-qliktech-files-registration-for-ipo

--------

Also, here's to hoping 1st quarter Earnings can substantiate some of the gains we've seen the last few months. Dow 12,000/S&P 1300... perhaps?

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.